Vaults CapitalHow we work.
Research is a craft, not a rating. The process below is what we run for every report we publish — equity, thematic, or alternative.
Single-name deep dives.
We cover undercovered businesses where the structural thesis is mispriced. Coverage is initiation-led — we publish a full report when conviction warrants it, not on a fixed schedule, and we follow up only when something material has changed.
- i. Idea sourcing. Quantitative screens, industry reading, and conversations with operators. We start the model only after we can articulate a non-consensus view.
- ii. Industry mapping. Competitive landscape, supply chain, and customer concentration. Where does the business actually compete and what makes it durable?
- iii. Modelling. Three-statement DCF with explicit driver assumptions. We do not hide the model — every report ships with it.
- iv. Risk map. The four to six things that would break the thesis, with named monitoring triggers for each.
- v. Bear / base / bull scenarios. We publish the scenario range, not a single point estimate.
Long-horizon allocation, not speculation.
Thematic portfolios are constructed around durable structural shifts — energy transition, defence cycle reset, capital fragmentation. We are explicit about what counts as a theme and what does not: a theme has a multi-year time horizon, identifiable beneficiaries with pricing power, and a falsification condition.
- i. Theme definition. A written one-pager describing the structural shift, why it is durable, and what would invalidate it.
- ii. Beneficiary mapping. Direct and second-order beneficiaries with the strongest competitive positions and pricing power.
- iii. Sizing and risk. Position sizing reflects conviction, valuation, and concentration limits. Volatility is not the same as risk.
- iv. Rebalancing rules. Quarterly review with named exit triggers. Themes can fail — we will close them when they do.
Beyond public equity.
Alternative coverage focuses on commodities, private markets, and real assets. We approach these the same way as equities — fundamental, long-horizon, and explicit about assumptions — adapted for less efficient pricing and longer cycle times.
- i. Cycle position. Where is the asset in its supply / demand / capital cycle? What are the lead times to respond?
- ii. Expression. Equity, royalty, physical, or derivative — each with different liquidity, leverage, and tail risk profiles. We always show the alternatives.
- iii. Macro overlay. Rates, currency, and policy assumptions made explicit. Alternative assets are sensitive to macro in ways equities are not.
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