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Equity deep dives, thematic portfolios, and alternative-asset analysis. Free summaries are public. Premium subscribers get the full report, model, and risk map.
The Iridium re-rate is mispriced
NTN and PNT contracts change the multiple — not the next quarter. Why the market is anchored to legacy satellite economics, and what the next eighteen months look like if direct-to-device traction is even half what we model.
Thematic · 12 min readAI's energy floor is structural
A power-scarcity portfolio that doesn't depend on the next training run. Picks, sizing, hedges, and the three macro events that would force us out of the trade.
Alternatives · 6 min readUranium's cycle isn't over
Supply discipline, restart calendars, and what the spot price keeps missing. Three ways to express the trade — equity, royalty, and physical.
Equity · 10 min readRolls-Royce: the small reactor isn't the trade
Why the SMR program is a free option, not the thesis. What the civil aerospace cycle, defence pull-through, and balance-sheet repair are actually worth.
Thematic · 9 min readThe defence cycle, reframed
Procurement, replenishment, and the slow re-industrialisation of NATO. Why the obvious primes are not always the best expression.
Alternatives · 7 min readCopper: when discipline meets reality
Eight-year discovery lead times meet AI-driven demand. The decade-long supply gap nobody is pricing in.
Equity · 11 min readVistra: the capacity premium is real
The market is finally re-pricing dispatchable power. Whether the move has another leg, and what we'd need to see to fade it.
Thematic · 8 min readLong-horizon allocation in a fragmenting world
A framework for thinking about portfolio construction when the assumptions of the post-1990 era no longer hold.
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